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COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF PUBLIC TABLES

The methods discussed in this chapter for applying the laws of probability to life insurance have produced a multitude of mortality tables for a variety of purposes. Generally, proprietary company tables are used for premium and dividend calculations. Different tables are used for solvency accounting and reporting to regulators. In the remainder of this chapter we describe important and interesting characteristics of some public tables. Table 13-10 provides a summary of these and other tables developed over the past century.

Two principal kinds of public mortality tables exist. First is the set of United States Life Tables published as a by-product of the decennial census. Census data are used to construct a table for the total population and for each of several sub-populations. The purpose of these tables is to display the public health of the country and to provide a general model for the uncertainty of length of life.

The other principal kind of public table is required by statute in the various states for use by insurance companies for specific purposes. Sections of these codes, which usually follow model laws developed by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), specify how the assets and liabilities on the annual statements of the insurance companies will be calculated. Insurance and annuity contracts in force create liabilities for life insurers. Valuing these liabilities requires reasonable assumptions about several factors, including mortality. The statute specifies a reasonable assumption for the mortality rates of insureds by naming a specific mortality table�the statutory table.

Until 1941 the statutes required tables that were selected from among those in existence in the actuarial profession. The 1941 CSO Table was the first constructed at the request of the NAIC for calculating minimum reserves and surrender values. In keeping with this purpose it was also the first to have an explicit margin added to the mortality rates.

Of the mortality tables listed in table 13-10, those described in rows 3 through 9 are descendants of the 1941 CSO. The 1958 and 1980 CSOs are updated tables used for ordinary life insurance. The 1980 CSO (see table 13-9) differs from its predecessors in several ways. It was the first time actuaries developed and published separate rates for men and women. Another difference was in the treatment of the "hump" in the mortality rates for males around age 20. The raw data in most mortality studies show rates for males reaching a low near age 10, then rising to a maximum near age 21, and falling again to a minimum near age 29. After this, they start a long continuous rise to the end of life. In previous mortality tables, the smoothing process eliminated this hump in the initial rates. In the 1980 CSO, however, because the hump in the male data was more pronounced than ever (due to auto accidents, homicides, drug overdoses, and suicides) it was not eliminated. An examination of table 13-9 shows a hump of 1.91 per 1,000 at age 21, then a reduction to the low of 1.70 at age 28, and then a rise back to 1.91 at age 33. The slight hump apparent in the female data was lost in the smoothing process.

The 1980 CSO also was the first to include selection factors in a table developed for regulatory purposes.

The 1958 and 1980 CET Tables, intended for use with extended term insurance, illustrate the need for mortality tables appropriate to their intended use. There were insufficient data to derive mortality rates for extended term coverage at all ages, so the general level of the mortality was determined and then applied to the pattern of mortality for ordinary life insurance. The resulting tables are based on multiples of the ordinary mortality tables rather than being derived directly from the mortality of lives with extended term coverage.

Further illustrations of tables constructed to be appropriate for the relevant population are the 1961 CSG, CSI, and CIET Tables. These are tables constructed at the request of the NAIC for group, industrial, and industrial extended term policies.

The 1983 Smoker-Nonsmoker tables also were constructed at the request of the NAIC. At the time, companies did not possess sufficient experience on insured lives to construct a table in the usual way. The committee that developed there tables estimated the proportion of smokers at each age of the 1980 CSO population and the relative mortality of smokers versus nonsmokers. Combining this information, the committee estimated mortality rates of the smoking and nonsmoking components of the 1980 CSO populations that were consistent with the overall mortality rates.

The UP-1984 Table was constructed by actuaries to value pension benefits. The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC) adopted this table to fulfill its mission of protecting defined-benefit pension plan participants with federal guarantees. The PBGC uses this table to value the obligations of pension plans that employers wish to terminate. The table is a unisex table and includes suggestions for complying with laws governing sex discrimination in the distribution of benefits.

Rows 10 through 15 of table 13-10 are tables used for annuity contracts. Only the 1971 and 1983 tables were constructed at the request of the NAIC. The mortality experience of lives covered under group annuities and pensions is different from that for lives covered under individually purchased annuities. These differences indicate a need for separate individual annuitant mortality (IAM) tables and group annuitant mortality (GAM) tables.

All public tables, like those described in this chapter, are intended to provide a minimum basis for valuation. Company solvency is the prime concern. For setting premiums and dividend scales, most major life insurance companies rely on their own recent experience.

 

TABLE 13-9
Commissioners 1980 Standard Ordinary (CSO) Table of Mortality
Male Lives

 

Age (x) at

Beginning of Year

Number Living at Beginning of

Designated Year (lx)

Number Dying

during

Designated Year

(dx)

Yearly

Probability

of Dying

(qx)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

10,000,000

9,958,200

9,947,545

9,937,697

9,927,958

9,918,526

9,909,599

9,901,077

9,893,156

9,885,637

9,878,322

9,871,111

9,863,510

9,855,126

9,845,369

9,834,047

9,820,968

9,806,138

9,789,762

9,772,336

9,754,159

9,735,626

9,717,031

9,698,666

9,680,626

9,663,007

9,645,903

9,629,216

9,612,750

9,596,408

9,579,998

9,563,425

9,546,402

9,528,932

9,510,732

9,491,711

41,800

10,655

9,848

9,739

9,432

8,927

8,522

7,921

7,519

7,315

7,211

7,601

8,384

9,757

11,322

13,079

14,830

16,376

17,426

18,177

18,533

18,595

18,365

18,040

17,619

17,104

16,687

16,466

16,342

16,410

16,573

17,023

17,470

18,200

19,021

20,028

0.004180

0.001070

0.000990

0.000980

0.000950

0.000900

0.000860

0.000800

0.000760

0.000740

0.000730

0.000770

0.000850

0.000990

0.001150

0.001330

0.001510

0.001670

0.001780

0.001860

0.001900

0.001910

0.001890

0.001860

0.001820

0.001770

0.001730

0.001710

0.001700

0.001710

0.001730

0.001780

0.001830

0.001910

0.002000

0.002110

 

TABLE 13-9 (Continued)
Commissioners 1980 Standard Ordinary (CSO) Table of Mortality
Male Lives

 

Age (x) at

Beginning of Year

Number Living at Beginning of

Designated Year (lx)

Number Dying

during

Designated Year

(dx)

Yearly

Probability

of Dying

(qx)

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

9,471,683

9,450,466

9,427,785

9,403,461

9,377,225

9,348,906

9,318,148

9,284,975

9,249,042

9,210,289

9,168,382

9,123,274

9,074,738

9,022,649

8,966,618

8,906,452

8,841,435

8,771,057

8,694,661

8,611,540

8,521,377

8,423,722

8,318,510

8,205,461

8,084,266

7,954,271

7,814,753

7,664,788

7,503,368

7,329,740

7,143,418

6,944,474

6,773,084

6,509,613

6,274,160

21,217

22,681

24,324

26,236

28,319

30,758

33,173

35,933

38,753

41,907

45,108

48,536

52,089

56,031

60,166

65,017

70,378

76,396

83,121

90,163

97,655

105,212

113,049

121,195

129,995

139,518

149,965

161,420

173,628

186,322

198,944

211,390

223,471

235,453

247,892

0.002240

0.002400

0.002580

0.002790

0.003020

0.003290

0.003560

0.003870

0.004190

0.004500

0.004920

0.005320

0.005740

0.006210

0.006710

0.007300

0.007960

0.008710

0.009560

0.010470

0.011460

0.012490

0.013590

0.014770

0.016080

0.017540

0.019190

0.021060

0.023140

0.025420

0.027850

0.030440

0.033190

0.036170

0.039510

 

TABLE 13-9 (Concluded)
Commissioners 1980 Standard Ordinary (CSO) Table of Mortality
Male Lives

 

Age (x) at

Beginning of Year

Number Living at Beginning of

Designated Year (lx)

Number Dying

during

Designated Year

(dx)

Yearly

Probability

of Dying

(qx)

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

6,026,268

5,765,331

5,490,613

5,201,587

4,898,907

4,584,446

4,261,105

3,932,489

3,602,553

3,274,541

2,950,885

2,633,724

2,324,920

2,026,726

1,742,478

1,475,966

1,230,823

1,009,829

814,659

645,788

502,572

383,472

286,281

208,381

146,721

98,309

60,504

31,450

10,757

260,937

274,718

289,026

302,680

314,461

323,341

328,616

329,936

328,012

323,656

317,161

308,804

298,194

284,248

266,512

245,143

220,994

195,170

168,871

143,216

119,100

97,191

77,900

61,660

48,412

37,805

29,054

20,693

10,757

0.043300

0.047650

0.052640

0.058190

0.064190

0.070530

0.077120

0.083900

0.091050

0.098840

0.107480

0.117250

0.128260

0.140250

0.152950

0.166090

0.179550

0.193270

0.207290

0.221770

0.236980

0.253450

0.272110

0.295900

0.329960

0.384550

0.480200

0.657980

1.000000

TABLE 13-10
U.S. Mortality Tables

 

Name

Purpose

Database

Gender

Type

Margins

Comments

1

79-81 US Life Table

US mortality; general purpose

1979�81

Combined and

sex distinct

Aggregate

None

For two centuries, life tables for U.S. population, with sub-populations by sex, race, and geographic region prepared as part of decennial census

2

1941 CSO

Company solvency and minimum nonforfeiture for ordinary insurance

Insurance company experience,
1930�40

Male

Ultimate

Explicit by formula

First table commissioned by the NAIC; first with explicit margins

3

1958 CSO

Company solvency and minimum nonforfeiture for ordinary insurance

Insurance company experience,
1950�54

Combined; female equal to male with
3-year setback

Ultimate

Explicit; sufficient to cover experience of 33 small companies

 

4

1958 CET

Company solvency and minimum nonforfeiture for ordinary extended term

58 CSO plus the greater of .00075 or 30% of mortality rate

Combined

Ultimate

Proportional to 58 CSO

First special table for extended term insurance

5

1961 CSG

Company solvency and minimum premiums for group insurance

Insurance company experience,
1950�58

Combined

Aggregate

Explicit

 

6

1961 CSI

Company solvency and minimum nonforfeiture for industrial insurance

Insurance company experience on white insureds, 1954�58; U.S. life table for ages >75

Combined

Aggregate

Explicit and substantial

 

7

1961 CIET

Company solvency and minimim nonforfeiture for industrial extended term

61 CSI plus loading

Combined

Aggregate

Proportional to 61 CET

 

8

80 CSO

Company solvency and minimum nonforfeiture for ordinary insurance

Insurance company experience,
1970�75

Sex distinct

Aggregate, policy years 6 and up

Math formula using the life expectancy based on the basic table

10-year selection factors were provided making this the first CSO Table available on a select basis

 

 

TABLE 13-10 (Concluded)
U.S. Mortality Tables

 

Name

Purpose

Database

Gender

Type

Margins

Comments

9

80 CET

Company solvency and minimum nonforfeiture for ordinary extended term

80 CSO plus the greater of .00075 or 30% of mortality rate

Combined

Ultimate

Proportional to 80 CSO

 

10

49A

General use for annuities

Group and industrial experience for several years about 1943

Combined

Aggregate

Only to bring it to 1949

First table with projection factors provided to update the table

11

51 GA

For employee annuitants

49A rates for ages < 65; company experience 1946�50 for ages > 65

Male

Aggregate

Margin to make it safe for all occupations

First table for employee annuitants; has projection factors as 49a

12

71 GAM

For minimum reserves on employee annuitants

Insurance comfpany experience, 1964�68

Sex distinct

Aggregate

8% for males and 10% for females

Had new projection factors

13

71 IAM

For minimum reserves on individual annuitants

Insurance company experience, 1960�67

Sex distinct

Aggregate

10% reduction

 

14

83 GAM

For minimum reserves on employee annuitants

Insurance company experience, 1964�68, with projections to 1983

Sex distinct

Aggregate

10% reduction

83 IAM projection factors up age 82; lower reduction factors above

15

83 IAM

For minimum reserves on individual annuitants

Insurance company experience, 1971�76 for ages >50; 71 IAM for ages <50

Sex distinct

Aggregate

10% reduction

Had new projection factors

16

84-UP

Used by PBGC in pension termination cases and general pension work

1965�69 noninsured pension plans and group life

Combined 80% male

Aggregate

Developed by consul. to manage unisex regulations in the 70s

 

17

83 Smoker-Nonsmoker

Company solvency and minimum nonforfeiture for ordinary insurance

Various

Sex distinct

Aggregate, policy years 6 and up

80 CSO margins

Mortality rates for smokers and nonsmokers consistent with 80 CSO rates were found for each age

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